Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,269$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(631 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,218.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,218.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(24.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(105.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,200$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,453.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(30,453.8\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,956$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(514 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,909.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,909.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $344$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $238,159$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(5.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,371.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231,371.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,514$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(7.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,347.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33,347.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,101$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,191,052$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.64 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,129,270.0}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 56.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,129,270.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $118,434$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,413.8}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.3)}}\) (asimptote \(114,413.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,473,503$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $301,935$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,848.2}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(294,848.2\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $42,373$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(7.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,345.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(40,345.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $258,249$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,043$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65,575.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 82.3)}}\) (asimptote \(65,575.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(704 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,889.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,889.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,990$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $189,817$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(5.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,857.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(179,857.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,875$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,572.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,572.4\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,095$ on 2020-06-18