Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,269$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(631 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,218.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,218.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(24.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(105.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20$ on 2020-06-18

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,200$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,453.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(30,453.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,956$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(514 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,909.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,909.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $344$ on 2020-06-18

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $238,159$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(5.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,371.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231,371.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,514$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(7.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,347.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33,347.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,101$ on 2020-06-18

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,191,052$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.64 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,129,270.0}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 56.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,129,270.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $118,434$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,413.8}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.3)}}\) (asimptote \(114,413.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,473,503$ on 2020-06-18

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $301,935$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,848.2}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(294,848.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,373$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(7.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,345.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(40,345.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $258,249$ on 2020-06-18

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,043$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(3.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65,575.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 82.3)}}\) (asimptote \(65,575.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(704 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,889.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,889.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,990$ on 2020-06-18

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $189,817$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(5.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,857.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(179,857.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,875$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,572.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,572.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,095$ on 2020-06-18

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Uruguay recovered 96%
Burkina Faso recovered 89%
Estonia recovered 89%
Malaysia recovered 84%
Italy recovered 79%
Cuba recovered 78%
Lithuania recovered 75%
Maldives recovered 67%
Djibouti recovered 59%
Singapore recovered 58%
Hungary recovered 54%
Uganda recovered 53%
Kuwait recovered 48%
Sri Lanka recovered 46%
Qatar recovered 42%
United Arab Emirates recovered 23%
Tajikistan recovered 23%
Canada recovered 17%
Belarus recovered 12%
Senegal recovered 8%

Uruguay⮸

Population $3,473,730$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $850$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(285 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{833.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(833.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(7.68 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 25.9)}}\) (asimptote \(23.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-06-18

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $899$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(322 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{875.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 25.0)}}\) (asimptote \(875.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $53$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(21.9 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 21.8)}}\) (asimptote \(52.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36$ on 2020-06-18

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,977$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(587 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,849.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,849.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(24.2 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(67.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $160$ on 2020-06-18

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,529$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,969.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,969.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(55 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 17.5)}}\) (asimptote \(115.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $408$ on 2020-06-18